MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia

Chilgoza pine is an economically and ecologically important evergreen coniferous tree species of the dry rocky temperate zone, a native south Asia. This rated as near threatened (NT) by International Union for Conservation Nature (IUCN). study hypothesized that climatic, soil topographic variations strongly influence distribution pattern potential habitat suitability prediction pine. Accordingly, this was aimed to document under varying environmental scenarios using 37 different variables. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm in MaxEnt software used forecast current future (i.e., 2050s 2070s) climate change Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): 245 585). A total 238 occurrence records were collected from Afghanistan, Pakistan India, employed build predictive model. results showed normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature coldest quarter, isothermality, precipitation driest month volumetric fraction coarse fragments (>2 mm) leading predictors presence prediction. High accuracy values (>0.9) predicted models recorded, remarkable shrinkage potentially suitable followed India China. estimated extent (EOO) about 84,938 km2, area occupancy (AOO) 888 with 54 major sub-populations. concluded that, scenario (138,782 km2) reasonably higher than existing EOO, might represent case continuous range contraction. Hence, outcomes research can be conservation management plans accordingly valuable region.